It has been a tricky week for the cryptocurrency market, largely as a result of collapse of the Terra ecosystem and its knock-on impact on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and altcoin costs, in addition to the panic promoting that happened after stablecoins misplaced their peg to the U.S. greenback.
The bearish headwinds for the crypto market have been constructing since late 2021, when the US greenback gained power and the US Federal Reserve indicated it might hike rates of interest later within the 12 months.
In line with a current report from Delphi Digital, the 14-month RSI for the DXY has now “crossed above 70 for the primary time since its rise in late 2014 into 2016.”
Efficiency of the DXY index. Supply: Delphi Digital
That is notable as 11 out of 14 instances the place this occurred beforehand “resulted in a stronger greenback ~78% of the time over the next 12 months,” indicating the likelihood that the ache for property may very well be worsening.
On common, the DXY gained about 5.7% after its RSI surged above 70, which as of Could 13 would “take the DXY index slightly below 111, its highest degree since 2002.”
BTC/USD vs. DXY Index (inverted) and a 60-day rolling correlation. Supply: Delphi Digital
“Assuming that the correlation between DXY and BTC stays comparatively sturdy, this may not be excellent news for the crypto market.”
Bitcoin is in a key space for worth bottoms
With a bigger image strategy, BTC is now retesting its 200-week Exponential Transferring Common (EMA) close to $26,990, which Delphi Digital says has “traditionally served as a key space for worth bottoms.”
BTC/USD vs 200-week EMA vs 14-week RSI. Supply: Delphi Digital
Bitcoin additionally continues to carry above its long-term weekly assist space of $28,000-$30,000, which has confirmed to be a powerful space of assist throughout the current market turmoil.
Whereas many merchants have been panic promoting over the previous few days, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead has taken a contrarian strategy, noting, “It is best to purchase when [the] The worth is effectively beneath the development. Now’s a type of instances.”
Bitcoin fund inflows versus worth motion. Supply: Twitter
“Bitcoin has solely been as “low-cost” or cheaper in comparison with development 5% of the time since December 2010. You probably have the emotional and monetary assets, go the opposite method.”
A phrase of warning, nevertheless, was provided by Delphi Digital, who famous that “the very best alternatives or ‘offers’ available in the market do not final lengthy.”
As BTC trades within the $28,000-$30,000 vary for an prolonged interval, “additional continuation turns into extra seemingly the longer we see worth rally in these ranges.”
If there may be one other drop, the “weekly construction and quantity construction assist at $22K-$24K” and the “all-time highs of $19K-$24K” are the following main areas of assist.
“Early indicators of give up are starting to bleed by, however we won’t but say we’re nearing the purpose of most ache.”
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